Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 82665.891454 87238.347501 91806.767077 96710.372418 101821.426916 106988.336985 112603.163512
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 75265.534254 82281.141580 89484.228913 97422.262872 105914.233658 114715.979433 124517.869612
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 69560.510710 78215.380492 87295.619681 97511.087069 108661.848092 120442.366119 133807.156390
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 65977.091184 75944.448977 86590.398016 98771.831372 112288.018235 126788.994442 143485.632060
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 62025.748134 72916.088784 84735.587285 98464.700156 113919.447165 130724.856519 150325.412400
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 59829.290738 71644.641681 84648.550895 99951.559195 117393.228625 136578.741006 159201.364018
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 57587.008474 70155.167993 84168.106378 100857.807162 120097.546914 141483.919830 166952.860981
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 55094.745095 68231.043668 83059.442573 100922.412986 121736.407275 145100.964148 173183.959756
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 52721.776191 66323.658667 81858.932606 100775.741140 123040.726843 148264.708280 178844.602218
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 51646.617738 65884.453311 82316.484667 102516.195907 126502.515615 153895.895547 187355.775135
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 50648.449626 65476.140107 82759.246382 104196.833751 129866.050735 159403.096179 195734.930944
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 49236.631462 64499.351945 82465.303667 104948.533952 132091.405545 163555.674924 202523.717773
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 47431.475493 63001.196388 81517.456384 104903.874840 133377.413223 166636.167153 208116.768213
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 45982.417175 61893.737567 81002.879813 105350.903336 135234.461948 170391.883100 214531.218488
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 44415.045968 60579.228980 80181.859178 105375.965114 136543.200767 173469.676091 220129.915192
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43578.808668 60154.607393 80433.946467 106701.752773 139428.153487 178446.275066 228033.394355
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 42009.365014 58735.857724 79392.485340 106371.567380 140237.034716 180881.729302 232848.902139
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 41413.680335 58550.417087 79886.308699 107952.331083 143409.794137 186207.405992 241210.133317
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40575.044200 58015.444230 79908.659314 108915.968155 145800.520176 190574.509141 248414.463178
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 39385.367855 56978.484968 79252.468894 108984.634669 147043.541950 193513.426861 253861.529217
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 38157.938864 55852.696704 78446.359752 108828.646429 147976.681316 196052.051736 258809.516233
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37838.432641 55931.504346 79198.486372 110679.370962 151465.623473 201792.129111 267770.381912
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37510.358340 55983.348087 79904.750004 112466.127958 154877.628484 207452.309888 276664.703413